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Time line: You will have 2 weeks to complete the on-line discussion as a team. Use this blog to capture your thoughts, perspectives, ideas, and revisions as you work together on this problem. This activity is discussion-based, meaning you will participate through a collaborative exchange and critique of each other’s ideas and work. The goal is to challenge and support one another as a team to tap your collective resources and experiences to dig more deeply into the issue(s) raised in the scenario. Since the idea is that everyone in the discussion will refine his/her ideas through the discussion that develops, you should try to respond well before the activity ends so that the discussion has time to mature. It is important to make your initial posts and subsequent responses in a timely manner. You are expected to make multiple posts during each stage of this on-going discussion. The timeline below suggests how to pace your discussion. This is just a suggestion. Feel free to pace the discussion as you see fit.
Tuesday Week 1 Initial Posts: All participants post initial responses to these instructions (see below) and the scenario.
Thursday Week 1 Response Posts: Participants respond by tying together information and perspectives on important points and possible approaches. Participants identify gaps in information and seek to fill those gaps.
Tuesday Week 2 Refine Posts: Participants work toward agreement on what is most important, determine what they still need to find out, & evaluate one or more approaches from the previous week’s discussion.
Thursday Week 2 Polish Final Posts: Participants come to an agreement on what is most important, and propose one or more approaches to address the issue/s.
Discussion Instructions
Imagine that you are a team of engineers working together for a company or organization to address the issue raised in the scenario. Discuss what your team would need to take into consideration to begin to address the issue. You do not need to suggest specific technical solutions, but identify the most important factors and suggest one or more viable approaches.
Suggestions for discussion topics
• Identify the primary and secondary problems raised in the scenario.
• Who are the major stakeholders and what are their perspectives?
• What outside resources (people, literature/references, and technologies) could be engaged in developing viable approaches?
• Identify related contemporary issues.
• Brainstorm a number of feasible approaches to address the issue.
• Consider the following contexts: economic, environmental, cultural/societal, and global. What impacts would the approaches you brainstormed have on these contexts?
• Come to agreement on one or more viable approaches and state the rationale.
Lithium mining for lithium-ion electrical vehicle batteries
The US government is investing heavily in sustainable resource research and development in order to decrease national oil consumption, and automotive industries around the world are competing in a global race for “sustainable mobility”. There were about 52 million total vehicles produced in the world in 2009, and replacing a significant amount of them with highly electrified vehicles poses a major challenge. The state of California is targeting 1 million electric vehicles (EVs) on its streets by 2020. By that same date, Nissan forecasts that EVs will become 10% of all global sales.
Battery technology is currently the major bottleneck in EV design. In 2009, President Obama announced $2.4 billion in grants to accelerate the manufacturing and deployment of next generation batteries and EVs. Lithium-ion batteries are the first choice for the emerging EV generation, (the Chevy Volt, the Volvo C30, the Nissan Leaf), because they feature high power density, manageable operating temperatures, and are relatively easy to recharge on the grid.
In spite of its potential, lithium may not be the answer to the EV battery challenge. Lithium, which is recovered from lithium carbonate (Li2CO3), is not an unlimited resource. Lithium-based batteries are already used in almost all portable computers, cell phones and small appliances. Utility-scale lithium-based energy storage devices are in the works for smart grid applications, such as balancing energy supply-demand fluctuations. Lithium is also extensively used in a number of processes we take for granted: the manufacturing of glass, grits, greases and aluminum, among others. This makes accurate estimations of future demand in relation to resource availability almost impossible.
According to Meridian International Research, an independent renewable-energy think tank, there is insufficient recoverable lithium in the earth's crust to sustain electric vehicle manufacture based on Li-ion batteries in the volumes required by the mass market. Lithium depletion rates would exceed current oil depletion rates, potentially switching dependency from one diminishing resource to another. The United States Geological Survey reports that the Salar de Uyuni salt pans of Bolivia contain the largest untapped reserve of lithium in the world – an estimated 5.4 million metric tons or almost 50% of the global lithium reserve base. Other estimates put the Bolivian resource as high as 9 million metric tons. Bolivian president, Evo Morales, has consistently rejected bids by Mitsubishi and Toyota to mine lithium in his country and has announced plans to develop a state-controlled lithium mining operation. Prices of lithium carbonate (Li2CO3) have more than doubled since 2004. Lithium batteries are costly, too; battery packs for vehicles cost upwards of $20,000 alone, driving up the overall cost.
Lithium CAN be recycled, but there is little existing infrastructure. In 2009, a California company, Toxco Waste Management, received $9.5 million in grants from the US Department of Energy to help build the first US-based facility for recycling lithium batteries in anticipation of demand.
How much lithium is needed to power an electric vehicle?
Energy requirements………………………..16 kilowatt hours (specified for Chevy Volt)
Lithium estimates per kWh……………….0.431 kg (US Department of Transportation estimate)
Total lithium for one Chevy Volt……….6.86 kg
Total Li2CO3 for one Chevy Volt ......... 36.5 kg
Total Li2CO3 one million PHEVs ..........36,500 metric tons
Sources
Lithium Dreams: Can Bolivia Become the Saudi Arabia of the Electric-Car Era? (March 22, 2010). The New Yorker.
Lithium Largesse? (August 2009). American Ceramic Society Bulletin.
US Department of Energy, Press Release. (August 5, 2009)
Bolivia’s Lithium Mining Dilemma. (September 8, 2008) BBC News.
The Trouble with Lithium: Implications of Future PHEV Production for Lithium Demand. (2007). Meridian International Research.
To me it sounds like the first step is identifying alternative possibilities for power generation.
ReplyDeleteAlso, we would need to know more about Meridian's think tank. How realistic is their prediction of lithium insufficiency? How have they supported it?
Furthermore are there other ways of obtaining lithium than through mining lithium carbonate?
Since lithium batteries are so common as mentioned in the brief, what are other companies/industries doing to prepare for lithium insufficiency?
Lastly, Chile already has rocky relations with Bolivia and their border is right next to Salar de Uyuni... joking
This is a very sophisticated problem with all the factors which play into using lithium for car batteries in EVs. Even though the lithium is not a renewable resource it can be recycled, unlike oil when burned there is nothing left except harmful emissions. Lithium could be recycled but in due time the resource will deplete from the many people who still do not recycle.
ReplyDeleteOnce we switch to lithium batteries in EVs then prices are going to sky rocket as simple economics will state. If something is in demand the prices will increase. With this in mind these car batteries will be a lot more expensive than $20,000 currently, hiking the prices of these ‘green cars’ up even further. Prices will not only go up for the cars but also the cell phones, computers, and manufacturing purposes which implement the lithium into their operation. This leads us to look at this issue from the stockholders point of view (customers purchasing the car). They will have to spend more money to purchase the car, intern they will support the raising prices of other consumer products.
Lastly, I would like to mention the topic of electricity. When these cars become popular such as the one million EVs proposed to be on the streets by 2020 in California how do we acquire enough electricity? Already, California is short enough as it is on their energy supply so what will support this massive influx of required power? This opens a whole other set of questions.
This is a very complex and interesting topic which I hope by the end of this discussion we can understand a little better along with its second hand affects.
I agree that the energy grids in some areas will likely need to be improved with large scale EV use. As you have suggested, this leads to the question of where the extra power should come from. Potential power sources will have to be evaluated in terms of economic and enivronmental efficiency along with output potential.
ReplyDeleteI disagree to some extent with your claim that increased demand will lead to higher prices for lithium dependent products. This will certainly be the case when lithium shortages begin having major impacts, as we have seen with gas price spikes, but when will the increase in price of raw lithium outset technology increases in areas such as manufacturing?
Technology advances and mass production tend to lower product cost. An example of this is computer hardware. A while back I saw a cost projection for lithium batteries for EVs and the trend showed rapid decay in the next 15 or so years followed by a stabilization. Unfortunately I don't know the details of the study nor do I have source information, but regardless we would need to know more about the industries dependent on lithium before we can conclusively say the mass production of EVs will drive up prices. In other words, how bad is the lithium shortage, how much effect does/will it have on pricing?
John, according to Brian Jaskula who is the lithium mineral commodity specialist at the US Geological Survey, the price of lithium has increased steadily over the past few years. Because lithium has become the preferred battery type for hybrid and electric cars, lithium production has increased since the 1990s in order to meet demands. So Lance’s argument may prove to be true, if the price of lithium continues to increase which is bound to happen then the price for lithium dependent products should also increase.
ReplyDeleteI think the issue with lithium batteries is the fact that it is not a renewable source. Although we may be solving the transportation problem we’re creating another dependency problem. We should continue to research alternative sources before we start to rely solely on lithium. Auto manufacturers plan to use lithium ion batters for their plug-in hybrids which are expected to come to market in the next few years. For example, General Motors is using lithium ion batteries for the Volt and Saturn Vue. Toyota is also using lithium ion batteries but is said to be researching zinc air batteries. Also the Toyota Prius uses a nickel-metal hybrid battery.
Another issue to point out is that the leading producers of lithium are located in South America and China. The increased demand for lithium production could worsen relations between the US and Latin America. Can these producers keep up with the large increase in demand? William Tahil, an energy and transportation consultant, concluded that lithium supply will be absorbed by the consumer electronics industry and that if the industry continues at a yearly growth of 25 percent, there would only be enough lithium carbonate for 1.5 million Chevy Volt-type vehicles by 2015. However, this argument was disputed by geologist R. Keith Evan who calculated worldwide reserves and concluded there is an abundance of lithium to meet demand.
In summary, the main issues we are seeing are:
ReplyDelete1. supply/demand
2. Cost (manufacture & consumer)
3. environmental issues (mining, recycling, etc)
Some approaches or solutions are:
1. continued research on battery technology
2. develop ways to use lithium more efficiently as well as ways to recycle or reuse
We should try to brainstorm more specific solutions to this problem. Also John there are other ways to get lithium. For example, today lithium is extracted from dried salt ponds. A briny liquid underneath the surface is pumped out and dried in the sun. The dried material can be made into lithium carbonate, which is later processed to make lithium. Lithium can also be extracted from different materials, including the mineral spodumene.
I think it is also important to mention that lithium is used not only for the purpose of batteries but also many other industries,ie, air conditioning, lubricants, and the manufacturing of glasses, ceramics, synthetic rubbers, etc. We tend to take these materials fore granted and how important they are to everyday life, not only for the consumer, but also the manufacturer. So if we were to to try and find a solution for the supply and demand of this resource we would also need to take these factors into consideration.
ReplyDeleteA study done by TRU Group Inc. has shown that the supply is still sufficient for demand. This study was only meant to predict up until 2020 though and I do not know of the resources they used to back this information up. With this being said, I would like to pose the question of: When will peak lithium hit? What I mean by this question is that as with oil there will be a peak amount of global petroleum extraction and after this the rate of production will enter a terminal decline. This may not be a good question but it poses the point of when peak lithium happens prices will shoot up for this commodity.
I agree that the recycling of this resource could prove useful but we do not know the efficiency of this process. How much of the original percentage of the lithium is salvaged after the recycling process is completed? So I agree with Ngoc's solution that research should be conducted in the the area of increasing the efficiency in the recycling and reusing of lithium.
To me it seems that this is a somewhat young industry and has much room to expand technologically.
There ARE other alternatives that are still in the research stages, someone above mentioned Toyota's zinc-air technology that could potentially side step lithium altogether. The promising aspect to all this is that oil has taught the public that we cannot take resources for granted. The foreword thinking that arises out of this issue has already incentivised companies to research alternatives. Just as the electric car exists out of limited oil incentives, but that took much longer of an awakening.
ReplyDeleteDiversification is the key.
The are a whole lot of smart engineers and scientist working on electrical storage solutions. But this problem is not constrained to electrical storage, its keeping the transportation machine we have constructed going. We must not keep our energy policies limited to only the most viable methods. But rather continuously develop the array of technologies we currently have, including lithium, lithium recovery, gasoline engine efficiency, photovoltaic efficiency, nuclear, solar. By not relying on a any single source of energy or materials, these limited resources can be stretched out to last long enough for new technologies to come into play.
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ReplyDeleteAfter further research into the earlier outlined problems I have discovered a company who believes they have the answer to the most cost effective and zero waste solution to mining lithium in order to produce the lithium carbonate required in electric car batteries. Usually lithium is mined from salt ponds where it is extracted from the soil and require large amounts of water to be consumed putting a shortage on drinking water. Simbol Mining believes it can mine lithium from the brine streams (water saturated with salt) of natural and artificial geothermal hotspots which run underground. They believe these streams contain lithium along with zinc and iron metals to also mine. This technique appeals as a more green solution instead of evaporating salt water ponds, still taking into account there are actually high levels of lithium concentrated in the brine streams. They say “this method represents the lowest cost way to extract lithium… using clean, zero waste production processes,” Simbol Mining.
ReplyDeleteThe upside to these lithium batteries which appeal to the mass public are its weight, charge holding capabilities, and less toxic recycling processes. With its weight being lighter than most other alternative battery choices out there it will improve on the cars performance. The charge which lithium is able to hold is the main factor. Due to its increased voltage potential over other batteries it gives a greater energy density to the battery. Therefore, battery can be smaller than others using less material while still being able to sustain its life cycle of 10+ years or 150,000 miles. Finally, the process in recycling lithium is a lot less toxic than say lead or cadmium recycling. There are a lot less byproducts making it more environmentally friendly. Toxco does have the means for this process where 95% of it is automated keeping workers safe, statistics taken off the Toxco website. This is of course taking into account that the mass of the population will recycle their batteries so depletion of this non-renewable resource will be slowed.
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ReplyDeleteI agree that lithium batteries have a lot of potential and likewise should not be abandoned. Already according to Better Place, a company promoting EV technology, lithium EV batteries are 95% recyclable. Furthermore, in regards to cost, according to Better Place, the raw lithium cost accounts for only 3% of battery cost and likewise fluctuations in lithium availability should not significantly affect price. According to an EV news blog, a study by Deutsche Bank predicts that EV battery price will decrease by 25% in the next 5 years and 50% in the next 10 years while performance is expected to double over the next 7 years.
ReplyDeleteBetter Place also notes a study by a US Dept. of Energy Lab that predicted lithium availability through 2050. It concluded supply will be abundant. If recycling is expanded, virgin lithium demand should peak in 2035 with recycled lithium taking over the majority of raw lithium required. Better Place goes on to say that while Bolivia does have some of the largest sources of lithium, other countries such as Chile and Argentina, who do export, also have significant supply. Better Place says that even if Bolivia's resources are untapped there should be enough lithium available for "decades if not centuries to come."
I also agree that diversification is important. Other technologies should continue to be researched as eventually something better than lithium batteries will be developed. Additionally, competing technologies dependent on other resources will decrease the burden on lithium supply, the abundance of which is debated. At the time however, and in the foreseeable future, I hold that lithium powered EV's are the best alternative to gasoline powered cars and that the bulk of research and development funds should go to improving mining, production, performance, and recyclability of their batteries.
Through our discussion, it sounds like we all can agree that the major issue here is that lithium is not a renewable source and as demand increases there eventually will be a shortage in supply.
ReplyDeleteI think we should approach this problem by:
1. Creating an infrastructure to effectively recycle batteries and other lithium based products
2. Continue researching to improve the efficiency of lithium use
3. Diversification. Continue researching other technologies that aim towards sustainability
I agree. But what incentives are, or must be put in place for these actions to be carried out.
ReplyDelete